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A full feasibility appraisal for a sample Business Bay plot, computed by the engine. Every figure below is real output: land value, materials-level cost, GDV, residual land value, the verdict, scenarios and sensitivity. Sign up to run your own on any plot.

Computed on seeded Dubai comparables as at 2026-06-30, so this page is reproducible and does not move. A live run uses current Land Department data and will return different figures for the same plot.

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Development feasibility, computed deterministically
Feasibility Appraisal
Business Bay, Dubai
Prepared 2026-07-15 by GANO
The deal works at the asking price, with AED 1.27m of headroom
Business Bay, Dubai · residential, mid spec · build to sell
Level 2 · defined scheme

Executive summary

The verdict and the headline numbers, at a glance.

Proceed. The land clears at the asking price with AED 1.27m of headroom and a 22.1% margin on GDV.

Residual land value
AED 18.77m
GDV
AED 65.6m
sale basis
Total dev cost
AED 32.58m
excludes land
Profit on GDV
22.1%
28.3% on cost
Equity IRR
45.5%
1.49x equity
Peak debt
AED 13.14m
60% LTC facility, peak is 20% of GDV
How GDV becomes profit
Value bridgeGDV AED 65.6m bridges to Profit AED 14.47m.65.6mGDV-18.55mLand-25mConstruction-6.27mSoft costs-1.32mFinance14.47mProfit
Margin vs lender band, 15 to 20% on GDV22.1%, above the lender comfort band

The decision numbers

Residual land value
AED 18.77m
what the land is worth given this scheme
Margin vs asking
+AED 1.27m
asking AED 17.5m · Seed: broker listing, Business Bay
GDV
AED 65.6m
sale basis
Total dev cost
AED 32.58m
excludes land
GFA
5,000 sqm
FAR 2.5
Net sellable area
4,100 sqm
what you sell or let
Profit at asking
AED 14.47m
28.3% on cost
Profit on GDV
22.1%
target 20%

Cost to materials

Concrete and steel are priced by quantity, so a live price move is visible.

within sanity band
Cost compositionMEP is the biggest share of the AED 32.58m spend.Concrete: AED 3,045,000 (9%)Steel / rebar: AED 1,260,000 (4%)Blockwork: AED 1,970,000 (6%)MEP: AED 6,570,000 (20%)Facade: AED 3,285,000 (10%)Finishes: AED 4,600,000 (14%)External works: AED 1,642,500 (5%)Preliminaries: AED 2,627,500 (8%)Soft costs: AED 6,268,000 (19%)Finance: AED 1,315,601 (4%)
  • Concrete9%
  • Steel / rebar4%
  • Blockwork6%
  • MEP20%
  • Facade10%
  • Finishes14%
  • External works5%
  • Preliminaries8%
  • Soft costs19%
  • Finance4%
CategoryQuantityRateCost
Concrete2,100 m3AED 1,450AED 3,045,000
Steel / rebar300,000 kgAED 4.20AED 1,260,000
Blockwork(7.9% of construction)AED 1,970,000
MEP(26.3% of construction)AED 6,570,000
Facade(13.1% of construction)AED 3,285,000
Finishes(18.4% of construction)AED 4,600,000
External works(6.6% of construction)AED 1,642,500
Preliminaries(10.5% of construction)AED 2,627,500
ConstructionAED 25,000,000
DesignAED 1,500,000
Authority and connectionsAED 300,000
Project managementAED 750,000
Sales and marketingAED 1,968,000
ContingencyAED 1,750,000
Finance (simplified, average drawdown)AED 1,315,601
Total development cost (excludes land)AED 32,583,601
Sources
Build rate basis:
firm
Seed: cost consultancy, Dubai residential · as of 2026-06-30
Concrete:
indicative
Seed: ready-mix supplier index, supply and place · as of 2026-06-30
Steel / rebar:
indicative
Seed: rebar supplier index, supply and fix · as of 2026-06-30

Exit and value

Gross development value, sale basis.

AED 65,600,000
Comparable transactions
The Vela, 2BR2026 Q1AED 16,400/sqm
Peninsula Four, 1BR2025 Q4AED 15,700/sqm
Bayz by Danube, 3BR2026 Q1AED 16,100/sqm
Source
firm
Seed: sale comparables, Business Bay · as of 2026-06-30

Scenarios

No single number ships naked.

AED 11.54mResidual land value rangeAED 25.85m
Scenario rangeRanges from AED 11.54m pessimistic to AED 25.85m optimistic, base AED 18.77m.
CaseLand valueProfit at asking
OptimisticAED 25.85mAED 23.28m
BaseAED 18.77mAED 14.47m
PessimisticAED 11.54mAED 5.49m

Cash flow and returns

The time-based view: finance interest on the actual drawn balance, and the equity return over the programme.

Equity IRR
45.5%
annualised, on equity
Equity multiple
1.49x
cash out / cash in
Peak equity
AED 23.13m
max capital deployed
Peak debt
AED 13.14m
max facility drawn
Finance interest (on the drawn balance)
AED 420k
over 24 months, month by month
Development cash flow
Development cash flowCumulative cost follows an S-curve to AED 49.82m; peak debt AED 13.14m.
Cumulative cost Revenue Drawn debtmonth 0 to 23

Sensitivity

What the deal is most fragile to. Each bar is the swing in residual land value as one driver moves a step up or down, centred on the base case and ranked by impact.

Sensitivity tornadoResidual land value swings most with Sale price; centre is the base case AED 18.77m. Each bar is measured at the step shown beside its driver, and the steps differ, so compare the swing rather than the bar length alone.base AED 18.77mSale price +10%+/- AED 4.76mBuild rate +8%+/- AED 1.89mFinance rate +2%+/- AED 292kBuild period +3mo+/- AED 207k
raises land value lowers it

Sensitivity grid

Residual land value across sale price and build rate. Green cells still clear the asking price, red cells do not: the boundary is the deal's break-even frontier.

Sale price \ Build rate-8%-4%+0%+4%+8%
+10%AED 25.42mAED 24.47mAED 23.53mAED 22.58mAED 21.63m
+5%AED 23.04mAED 22.1mAED 21.15mAED 20.2mAED 19.25m
+0%AED 20.66mAED 19.72mAED 18.77mAED 17.82mAED 16.88m
-5%AED 18.29mAED 17.34mAED 16.39mAED 15.44mAED 14.5m
-10%AED 15.91mAED 14.96mAED 14.01mAED 13.07mAED 12.12m
Base case Works at asking Below asking

How the numbers were calculated

The audit trail: every headline figure, its formula, its inputs, and its source.

Buildable area (GFA)
plot area x plot ratio (FAR)
plot area 2,000 sqmFAR 2.5
5,000 sqm
Net sellable area (NSA)
GFA x efficiency
GFA 5,000 sqmefficiency 82.0%
4,100 sqm
Construction cost
sum of the quantity and share cost lines
firm
Seed: cost consultancy, Dubai residential · as of 2026-06-30
AED 25,000,000
Soft costs
design + authority + project management + sales & marketing + contingency
design AED 1,500,000authority AED 300,000project mgmt AED 750,000sales & marketing AED 1,968,000contingency AED 1,750,000
AED 6,268,000
Finance
(construction + soft) x loan-to-cost x rate x (period / 12) x average drawdown
loan-to-cost 60.0%rate 8.5%period 18 moavg drawdown 55.0%
AED 1,315,601
Total development cost
construction + soft costs + finance (excludes land)
construction AED 25,000,000soft costs AED 6,268,000finance AED 1,315,601
AED 32,583,601
Gross development value
NSA x blended sale price
NSA 4,100 sqmblended sale price AED 16,000
firm
Seed: sale comparables, Business Bay · as of 2026-06-30
AED 65,600,000
Target profit
GDV x target margin
GDV AED 65,600,000target margin 20.0%
AED 13,120,000
Residual land value (gross)
GDV - total development cost - target profit
GDV AED 65,600,000total dev cost AED 32,583,601target profit AED 13,120,000
AED 19,896,399
Residual land value
max(gross residual / (1 + land acquisition on-costs), 0)
gross residual AED 19,896,399acquisition on-costs 6.0%before the floor AED 18,770,188
AED 18,770,188
Profit at asking price
GDV - (total dev cost + land x (1 + on-costs))
GDV AED 65,600,000total dev cost AED 32,583,601land price AED 17,500,000
AED 14,466,399

Assumptions

Every assumption stated.

  • Net area is 82% of GFA (efficiency assumption for residential).
  • Target profit is 20% of GDV.
  • Finance modelled at 8.5% over 18 months, 60% loan to cost, 55% average drawdown.
  • Land acquisition on costs of 6% (DLD transfer plus agent) are stripped from the residual land value.
  • Finance is a simplified loan to cost estimate, not a full cash flow model.

Confidence

The depth of the answer is earned by the depth of the input.

firm

Firm: materials-level cost and a comparable-driven value give a defensible residual land value and return.

Next input

Actuals, a bill of quantities, or tender data would validate the figures against real quantities.

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Example report · GANO